July 14, 1997
BILL GATES WAKES UP, MAKES 1.7 BILLION TODAY

TECH STOCKS start off the day by going nuts - Microsoft ends up over 6 points. Bill Gates presently owns about 270 million shares of Microsoft stock and just made 1.7 BILLION dollars today doing what he usually does. I wonder if he has people who just answer the mail from folks begging for money?

WHAT'S THE POINT HERE? The point is, we are staying up all night working on futures market trading systems - and some of us are even making a few dollars. Meanwhile, over the past four years Microsoft stock has been going up at a compound rate of +3.9% per month - and DELL has been going up at a compound rate of +7.6% per month, CPQ up + 4.6% per month, INTC up +3.8% per month, and IBM up +3.0% per month.

TECHNOLOGY is taking over the world, and the companies leading the way are making their stockholders rich. Meanwhile, why are we watching one minute bars gyrate all over the screen all day when we should be just buying more Microsoft stock and going back to bed?

BEATS ME. I spent so much time in 1982-1983 trying to figure out how to trade Eurodollar spreads that I forgot to make a small fortune by staying long in the stock market after that wonderful and crazy day on August 12, 1982 when the market lurched off a low of 759 and never looked back. It all seems so easy in retrospect, doesn't it?

BY THE WAY, why DID I short the NASDAQ100 this morning? Because my system told me to - and it's usually right. Don't you hate it when everybody's making money and you're being crushed?

SO MUCH for the joy of system trading and discipline. I hate drawdown. It's easy when you're making money. But, it's when you're in the dreaded DRAWDOWN that you decide whether you really want to do this or not.

AFTER 17 YEARS I'm still doing it, so there must be something here that I like.

ONE COMFORTING THOUGHT - I have lost money before, and I always come back. That's because of the first "M" - money management. I always keep leverage low enough so that I have time to figure out why I lost money, and come up with a system "fix" or develop a better one. More on leverage at another time.

WONDER where Bill is going to spend the 1.7 BIL?

---Tom Loffman

Copyright, 1997
Tom Loffman, Equity Systems